Outcomes of stage IV melanoma in the era of immunotherapy: a National Cancer Database (NCDB) analysis from 2014 to 2016

Abstract

Background To evaluate factors affecting the utilization of immunotherapy and to stratify results based on the approval of ipilimumab in 2011 and programmed death-1 inhibitors in 2014, an analysis of available data from the National Cancer Database (NCDB) was performed.Methods The NCDB was analyzed to identify patients with stage IV melanoma from 2004 to 2016. Patients were categorized during the time periods 2004–2010, 2011–2014, and 2015–2016. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier, log-rank, and Cox proportional hazard models; IO status was analyzed using logistic regression.Results 24,544 patients were analyzed. Overall, 5238 patients (21.3%) who received IO had improved median OS compared with those who did not (20.2 months vs 7.4 months; p<0.0001). Between 2004 and 2010, 9.7% received immunotherapy; from 2011 to 2014, 21.9% received immunotherapy; and from 2015 to 2016, 43.5% received immunotherapy. Three-year OS significantly improved in patients treated with IO across treatment years: 31% (95% CI 29% to 34%) from 2004 to 2010, 35% (95% CI 33% to 37%) from 2011 to 2014, and 46% (95% CI 44% to 48%) from 2015 to 2016 (p<0.0001). Survival was worse in patients who did not receive IO during these treatment years: 16% (15%–17%), 21% (20%–22%), and 27% (25%–28%), respectively. In the overall cohort, age <65 years, female gender, private insurance, no comorbidities, residence in metropolitan area, and treatment at academic centers were associated with better OS (p<0.0001 for all). In the multivariate analysis, receipt of IO from 2015 to 2016 was associated with age <65 years (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.50), African American race (OR 5.88, 95% CI 1.60 to 28.58), lack of comorbidities (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.66), and treatment at academic centers (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.65) (p<0.05 for all).Conclusions OS improved in patients with stage IV melanoma receiving IO, with the highest OS rate in 2015–2016. Our findings, which represent a real-world population, are slightly lower than recent trials, such as KEYNOTE-006 and CheckMate 067. Significant socioeconomic factors may impact receipt of IO and survival.