Statistical Modeling of Hunting Success Using Hunter Surveys

Abstract

Different methods are available to estimate the wildlife population development. In this paper a method based on hunter surveys of a Spanish game preserve is proposed. A Poisson model is fitted to estimate the relationship between hunting success and other independent variables. In order to find the most appropriate model, a model selection procedure based on repeated cross validation is used to determine which explanatory variables describe the hunting success better in terms of prediction ability. The estimated model is successful in the case of the red legged partridge (Alectoris rufa). The model can be used for applying different management criteria in a game preserve. Some possibilities are demonstrated for particular scenarios.