Current progress in subseasonal-to-decadal prediction based on machine learning

Abstract

The application of machine learning (ML) techniques to climate science has received significant attention, particularly in the field of climate predictions, ranging from sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. This paper reviews recent progress of ML techniques employed in climate phenomena prediction and the enhancement of dynamic forecast models, which provide valuable insights into the great potentials of ML techniques to improve climate prediction capabilities with reduced computational time and resource consumption. This paper also discusses several major challenges in the application of ML to climate prediction, including the scarcity of datasets, physical inconsistency, and lack of model transparency and interpretability. Additionally, this paper sheds light on how climate change impacts ML model training and prediction, and explores three key areas with potential breakthroughs: large-scale climate models, knowledge discovery driven by ML, and hybrid dynamical-statistical models, underscoring the important role of the integration of “ML and dynamical models” in building a bridge between the artificial intelligence and climate science.

Keywords

• Machine learning
• Climate prediction
• Numerical models