Risk Evaluation of Ice Flood Disaster in the Upper Heilongjiang River Based on Catastrophe Theory

Abstract

The ice flood phenomenon frequently occurs in frigid locations of high latitude and high altitude, which triggers ice dam or ice jam flooding thus endangering personal and property safety. Hence, a scientific risk evaluation with enough consideration of each factor is a basic and necessary requirement for preventing ice flood disaster risks. This study establishes a risk evaluation system for ice flood disasters based on the catastrophe theory and utilizes the Pearson correlation coefficient to screen underlying indicators to evaluate the risk of ice flood in the upper Heilongjiang River region. Considering the correlation between different indicators, a hierarchical cluster analysis is invoked to simplify the indicator set and to select typical years. The results of the evaluation system indicate that the catastrophe membership values in the Mohe, Tahe, and Huma regions from 2000 to 2020 ranged from 0.86 to 0.93. Based on the membership values and the actual disaster situations, a four-level classification of risk ratings is conducted. The comparison between the results obtained from the catastrophe theory evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method reveals similar risk levels, which verifies the effectiveness and practicality of the catastrophe theory applied to the ice flood risk evaluation and presents a novel method for the study of ice floods.

Keywords

• ice flood disaster
• catastrophe theory
• indicator preference
• risk evaluation
• Heilongjiang River