Assessment of Different Frameworks for Addressing Climate Change Impact on Crop Production and Water Requirement

Abstract

Various methodologies are used to estimate the impact of changing climatic factors, such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, on crop production and water demand. In this study, the changes in rice yield, water demand, and crop phenology were estimated with varying CO2 concentration and an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs), using a decision support system for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT), a crop growth model. The measured CO2 concentration of 400 ppm from the Keeling curve, was used as the default CO2 concentration to estimate yield, water demand, and phenology. These outputs, obtained with the default concentration, were compared with the results from climate change scenarios’ concentrations. Further, the outputs corresponding to the ensembled GCMs’ climate data were obtained, and the results were compared with the ensembled crop model outputs simulated with each GCM. The yield was found to increase with the increase in CO2 concentration up to a certain threshold, whereas water demand and phenology were observed to decrease with the increase in CO2 concentration. The two approaches of the ensemble technique to obtain final outputs from DSSAT results did not show a large difference in the predictions.

Keywords

• crop production
• climate change
• CO₂ concentration
• ensemble approach
• water demand
• phenology