The Link of Extreme Precipitation with the Clausius–Clapeyron Relation: The Case Study of Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

One of the impacts of climate change is an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. This has very significant social and economic consequences for the affected areas (flooding, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, etc.). Future trends indicate a further increase in extreme rainfall in the second half of the century, making the need for the timely and accurate forecasting of these phenomena more urgent than ever. However, despite the technological development of weather and climate models in recent years, there are still limitations in detecting the extremes, especially regarding the precipitation parameter. Extreme precipitation events show a link with temperature. The Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) equation, which relates temperature to saturation vapor pressure (es), is used to study the sensitivity of precipitation to temperature increase because it can estimate the increase in the available atmospheric water vapor with respect to temperature. Focusing on the Thessaloniki region in Greece, the aim of this paper is to investigate the applicability of the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to the scaling relationship between extreme precipitation intensity and surface air temperature. An additional attempt is also made to test the possibility of improving the underestimation that the reanalysis models exhibit in recording the extremes and in particular the ERA5 Land dataset.

Keywords

• extreme precipitation
• increasing temperature
• Clausius–Clapeyron scaling
• ERA5 Land
• climate change
• flooding