Hourly temperature variability and mortality in 31 major Chinese cities: Effect modification by individual characteristics, season and temperature zone

Zhou Yang; Jun Yang; Maigeng Zhou; Peng Yin; Zhaoyue Chen; Qi Zhao; Kejia Hu; Qiyong Liu; Chun-Quan Ou

Environment International (Nov 2021)

Hourly temperature variability and mortality in 31 major Chinese cities: Effect modification by individual characteristics, season and temperature zone

Zhou Yang,
Jun Yang,
Maigeng Zhou,
Peng Yin,
Zhaoyue Chen,
Qi Zhao,
Kejia Hu,
Qiyong Liu,
Chun-Quan Ou

Affiliations

Zhou Yang: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
Jun Yang: Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China; Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou 511443, China; JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China; Corresponding authors at: Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China (J. Yang). Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China (Q. Liu). State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China (C.Q. Ou).
Maigeng Zhou: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Peng Yin: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Zhaoyue Chen: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
Qi Zhao: Department of Epidemiology, Shandong University, Jinan, China
Kejia Hu: Institute of Big Data in Health Science, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China
Qiyong Liu: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Corresponding authors at: Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China (J. Yang). Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China (Q. Liu). State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China (C.Q. Ou).
Chun-Quan Ou: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China; Corresponding authors at: Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China (J. Yang). Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China (Q. Liu). State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China (C.Q. Ou).

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 156
p. 106746

Abstract

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Background: In the context of ongoing climate change, temperature variability (TV) has been considered as an important trigger of death. However, evidence of association between mortality and hourly temperature variability (HTV) is scarce at the multi-city level, and the time window of health effects of HTV is lack of investigation. This study aims at quantifying the mortality risk and burden of HTV and exploring subpopulations susceptible to HTV from a large-scale multi-city perspective. Methods: Data on daily number of deaths and meteorology were collected for 31 Chinese major cities during 2007–2013. HTV was calculated as the standard deviation of hourly temperature within a few days. The optimal exposure period of HTV was chosen according to multiple scientific criteria. A quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to assess the city-specific HTV-mortality associations. Then, meta-analysis was further applied to pool city-specific effect estimates. Finally, we calculated the fraction of mortality attributable to HTV. Stratification analyses were conducted by individual characteristics (i.e. age, sex, and educational attainment), season, and region. Results: HTV calculated in a relatively long-time window like 18 d (HTV0–17) could capture the impact of HTV adequately. Per 1 °C raise of HTV0–17 associated with 1.38% (95%CI: 0.77, 1.99) increase of non-accidental mortality. During the study period, 5.47% (95%CI: 1.06, 9.64) of non-accidental mortality could be attributed to HTV. The females, the elderly, and individuals with low education level were more susceptible to HTV than their counterparts, respectively. Moreover, a stronger HTV-mortality association was observed in individuals who live in warmer season and temperature zone. Conclusion: HTV is associated with a considerable mortality burden, which may be modified by season, geographic and individual-level factors. Our findings highlight the practical importance of establishing early warning systems and promoting health education to mitigate the impacts of temperature variability.

Published in Environment International

ISSN: 0160-4120 (Print)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Environmental sciences
Website: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/environment-international

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