Quantifying the spatial ripple effect of the Bohai Sea ice disaster in the winter of 2009/2010 in 31 provinces of China

Abstract

The existence of multiple disaster-hit regions with spatially heterogeneous economic structures is vital to the investigation of the spatial ripple effects of disaster disturbances in the inter-regional supply-demand chain. We employed the inter-regional input-output (IRIO) model to modify the adaptive regional input-output model (ARIO) and reproduce indirect economic losses (IELs) after the Bohai Sea ice disaster event in the mainland of China. The results showed that the total IEL in China comprised 38% of the direct economic loss. The disaster area (the Bohai Rim region) lost 1460.55 million CNY, and other provinces were burdened with 49% of the total IEL. Agricultural services absorbed 44% of the total IEL in China. Furthermore, lingering effects of the disaster were detected in non-disaster areas ∼5–10 months after the removal of the spatial ripple effect compared with the disaster areas. Finally, the difference in total IEL in China caused by spatial heterogeneity in the supply-demand chain was ∼46.8%. Our findings suggest that the spatial ripple effect and the spatial heterogeneity of economic structures play an important role in the extent of disaster impacts on inter-regional economic systems.

Keywords

• Indirect economic losses
• spatial heterogeneity of economic structure
• adaptive regional input-output model
• sea ice disaster
• China