Evaluation of the TRMM product for monitoring drought over Paraíba State, northeastern Brazil: a trend analysis

Abstract

Abstract Droughts are complex natural phenomena that influence society's development in different aspects; therefore, monitoring their behavior and future trends is a useful task to assist the management of natural resources. In addition, the use of satellite-estimated rainfall data emerges as a promising tool to monitor these phenomena in large spatial domains. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products have been validated in several studies and stand out among the available products. Therefore, this work seeks to evaluate TRMM-estimated rainfall data's performance for monitoring the behavior and spatiotemporal trends of meteorological droughts over Paraíba State, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) from 1998 to 2017. Then, 78 rain gauge-measured and 187 TRMM-estimated rainfall time series were used, and trends of drought behavior, duration, and severity at eight time scales were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall and Sen tests. The results show that the TRMM-estimated rainfall data accurately captured the pattern of recent extreme rainfall events that occurred over Paraíba State. Drought events tend to be drier, longer-lasting, and more severe in most of the state. The greatest inconsistencies between the results obtained from rain gauge-measured and TRMM-estimated rainfall data are concentrated in the area closest to the coast. Furthermore, long-term drought trends are more pronounced than short-term drought, and the TRMM-estimated rainfall data correctly identified this pattern. Thus, TRMM-estimated rainfall data are a valuable source of data for identifying drought behavior and trends over much of the region.