Potential distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) in China and the major factors influencing distribution

Abstract

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is one of the most important agricultural pests in the world. At the end of 2018, S. frugiperda was first found in Yunnan, China, and then it had spread rapidly to 19 provinces and posed a serious threat to China’s agricultural production. Based on the current distribution data of S. frugiperda and enviromental variables, this paper constructed a potential species distribution model (MaxEnt), and predicted the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda in China, and identified the dominant climatic factors that control its distribution. The results showed that: (1) The average AUC value of the model was 0.906, which demonstrated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. (2) Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (bio11), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (bio6), Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (bio10), Max Temperature of Warmest Month (bio5), were dominant climatic factors which affected and controlled the potential distribution of S. frugiperda, and the appropriate range were −14.77-22.86 °C, −13.33-24.35 °C, 19.15–29.73 °C, and 24.55–36.83 °C. (3) The most suitable area of S. frugiperda are mainly distributed in Guangxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Yunnan, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hainan, Jiangsu, Henan, Taiwan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Shanghai and Hongkong, and account for 12.09% of China’s total area. According to the results of this study, it was known that the pest was a major threat to maize and rice in China, and it was urgently necessary to strengthen monitoring and management in its suitable range to prevent the invasion of S. frugiperda which would ensure the safety of agriculture. Keywords: Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), MaxEnt model, Potential geographical distribution, Environmental variables