AIS-Based Intelligent Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using Bi-LSTM

Abstract

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for maritime traffic control and management. In addition to collision avoidance, accurate vessel trajectory prediction can help in planning navigation routes, shortening the sailing distance, and increasing navigation efficiency. Vessel trajectory prediction with automatic identification system (AIS) data has thus attracted considerable attention in the maritime industry. Original AIS data may contain noise, which limits their application in real-world maritime traffic management. To overcome this problem, this study proposes a vessel trajectory prediction method that combines data denoising and a deep learning prediction model. In this method, data denoising is realized in three steps: trajectory separation, data denoising, and standardization. First, outliers from the original AIS data samples are removed, after which the moving average model is employed to further clean up the data; finally the denoised data are standardized into uniformly distributed time-series data. Bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) is then applied for vessel trajectory prediction. The performance of the proposed prediction model was verified using data on the trajectories of ten vessels and comparing the results obtained with those obtained using other prediction models (exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average, support vector regression, recurrent neural network, and LSTM models); the trajectory data were downloaded from a public AIS database. The experimental results revealed that model prediction accuracy increased after the data denoising process. Specifically, the Bi-LSTM model had the lowest mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and root-mean-square error, demonstrating that the proposed method is highly efficient for trajectory prediction and can help vessel traffic controllers predict accurate vessel tracks; this would enable them to take early preventive measures to avoid collisions and thus improve the efficiency and safety of maritime traffic.

Keywords

• Deep learning
• bidirectional long short-term memory
• trajectory prediction
• collision avoidance