Forecasting Cinema Attendance at the Movie Show Level: Evidence from Poland

Abstract

Background: Cinema programmes are set in advance (usually with a weekly frequency), which motivates us to investigate the short-term forecasting of attendance. In the literature on the cinema industry, the issue of attendance forecasting has gained less research attention compared to modelling the aggregate performance of movies. Furthermore, unlike most existing studies, we use data on attendance at the individual show level (179,103 shows) rather than aggregate box office sales.

Keywords

• cinema attendance
• movie
• imdb
• forecasting
• data mining
• decision support models
• l82
• c53
• d81
• z11