Enhancing COVID-19 Prevalence Forecasting: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Epidemic Differential Equations and Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is indispensable for effective public health planning and the allocation of healthcare resources at all levels of governance, both nationally and globally. Conventional prediction models for the COVID-19 pandemic often fall short in precision, due to their reliance on homogeneous time-dependent transmission rates and the oversight of geographical features when isolating study regions. To address these limitations and advance the predictive capabilities of COVID-19 spread models, it is imperative to refine model parameters in accordance with evolving insights into the disease trajectory, transmission rates, and the myriad economic and social factors influencing infection. This research introduces a novel hybrid model that combines classic epidemic equations with a recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed model integrates time-dependent features, namely the numbers of individuals classified as susceptible, infectious, recovered, and deceased (SIRD), and incorporates human mobility from neighboring regions as a crucial spatial feature. The study formulates a discrete-time function within the infection component of the SIRD model, ensuring real-time applicability while mitigating overfitting and enhancing overall efficiency compared to various existing models. Validation of the proposed model was conducted using a publicly available COVID-19 dataset sourced from Italy. Experimental results demonstrate the model’s exceptional performance, surpassing existing spatiotemporal models in three-day ahead forecasting. This research not only contributes to the field of epidemic modeling but also provides a robust tool for policymakers and healthcare professionals to make informed decisions in managing and mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords

• epidemic differential equations
• recurrent neural network
• prevalence forecasting
• COVID-19