Flood frequency analysis of Manas River Basin in China under non‐stationary condition

Abstract

Abstract Incorporating 50 years of flood data for the Manas River Kenswat Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2006, the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall trend test are used to analyse non‐stationarity of the flood characteristic sequences. Moreover, the Pearson type‐III (P‐III) distribution, the mixed distribution (MD) and conditional probability distribution (CPD) models are employed to analyse frequency and to calculate the design flood process line. The results showed that the annual maximum peak discharge and the annual maximum flood volume are most likely to change in 1993. The MD model considering the non‐stationarity of the flood sequence is more accurate than the CPD model and the traditional P‐III distribution model. There are significant differences in the design flood process lines of the 1996 typical flood process obtained by the three methods using the same frequency scaling method. In addition, under different design standards, the design value of the MD model is 20–53% smaller than the design value approved in 2008 (approved by China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute) and 4–48% higher than the traditional P‐III distribution design value. The results can provide a new reference for the management of non‐stationary floods in Manas River.

Keywords

• conditional probability distribution
• design flood
• flood
• mixed distribution
• non‐stationarity