Clinical Interventions in Aging (Mar 2023)
A Predictive Model for Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Elderly Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction
Abstract
Hang Qiu,1 Yinghua Zhu,1 Guoqi Shen,1 Zhen Wang,1 Wenhua Li1,2 1Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Wenhua Li, Department of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86 18052268293, Email [email protected]: Development and validation of a nomogram model to predict the risk of Contrast-Induced Acute Kidney Injury (CI-AKI) after emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in elderly patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).Patients and Methods: Retrospective analysis of 542 elderly (≥ 65 years) STEMI patients undergoing emergency PCI in our hospital from January 2019 to June 2022, with all patients randomized to the training cohort (70%; n=380) and the validation cohort (30%; n=162). Univariate analysis, LASSO regression, and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine independent risk factors for developing CI-AKI in elderly STEMI patients. R software is used to generate a nomogram model. The predictive power of the nomogram model was compared with the Mehran score 2. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the prediction model’s discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity, respectively.Results: The nomogram model consisted of five variables: diabetes mellitus (DM), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), Systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and highly sensitive C-reactive protein(hsCRP). In the training cohort, the AUC is 0.84 (95% CI: 0.790– 0.890), and in the validation cohort, it is 0.844 (95% CI: 0.762– 0.926). The nomogram model has better predictive ability than Mehran score 2. Based on the calibration curves, the predicted and observed values of the nomogram model were in good agreement between the training and validation cohort. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram prediction model has good clinical utility.Conclusion: The established nomogram model can intuitively and specifically screen high-risk groups with a high degree of discrimination and accuracy and has a specific predictive value for CI-AKI occurrence in elderly STEMI patients after PCI.Keywords: nomogram, elderly, risk prediction model, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, contrast-induced acute kidney injury
