The methods of scenario designing for the development of regional systems of vocational education and training

Abstract

Introduction. Despite the increasing importance of the vocational education and training systems in the developed countries, with rare exceptions, there are no strategic management tools adequate to the present context. The system of vocational education and training (VET), being a complex and multidimensional object, requires adequate approaches to manage its development. The present article demonstrates one of these approaches based on forecasting possible system states in the long term, identifying and comparing alternative development scenarios. The requirements for describing scenarios for the development of regional vocational education and training system, including the possible structure of the description and parameters of the scenarios, are presented and justified. The advantages of an approach to forecasting, based on a comprehensive qualitative description of possible states of the regional ecosystem of VET, are shown.The aim of the present article was to demonstrate a scientific approach to long-term forecasting of the development of vocational education and training.Methodology and research methods. The current research is based on the methodology of system analysis of social objects, using the methods of comparative analysis and modeling of social systems, scenario planning and expert methods.Results and scientific novelty. As a result of the research, a methodology for the scientific description of scenarios for the development of vocational education and training, under the influence of a set of probable factors, was developed. The novelty of the results lies in the possibility of constructing a number of alternative scenarios using relatively stable model modules.Practical significance. The research results can be applied in the process of strategic planning for the development of vocational education and training in the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as for the regional vocational education and training systems of other countries.

Keywords

• среднее профессиональное образование
• долгосрочное прогнозирование
• сценарий развития
• веер сценариев
• параметры
• развитие образования
• стратегическое управление
• экосистема образования
• структура сценария