A Risk Assessment Model of Coalbed Methane Development Based on the Matter-Element Extension Method

Abstract

Coalbed methane development represents a complex system engineering operation that involves complex technology, many links, long cycles, and various risks. If risks are not controlled in a timely and effective manner, project operators may easily cause different levels of casualties, resource waste and property loss. To evaluate the risk status of coalbed methane development projects, this paper constructs a coalbed methane development risk assessment index system that consists of six first grade indexes and 45 second grade indexes. The weight of each index is calculated based on the structure entropy weight method. Then, a theoretical model for risk assessments of coalbed methane development is established based on the matter-element extension method. Finally, the model is applied to analyze a coalbed methane development project in the southern Qinshui Basin of China. The results show that the overall risk level of the coalbed methane development project is Grade II, indicating that the overall risk of the project is small, but the local risk of the project needs to be rectified in time. The assessment results are consistent with the actual operation of the project, indicating that the established risk assessment model has good applicability and effectiveness.

Keywords

• coalbed methane development
• risk assessment
• structural entropy weight method
• matter-element extension method