An Integrated Estimating Approach for Design Wind Speed under Extreme Wind Climate in the Yangtze River Inland Waterway

Abstract

Developing the engineering design standard of wind speed is a key aspect of the climate research in the Yangtze River Inland Waterway (YRIW), which is highly sensitive to extreme weather and climate processes. An engineering design wind speed projection model was established to evaluate the distribution of extreme wind speeds in the YRIW region at spatiotemporal scales from 1979 to 2100, integrating the Weibull distribution and generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution characteristics. We also used high-precision climate model products and integrated analysis methods to predict the evolution of engineering design wind speeds in the study area in the future. The results show that: (1) The maximum wind speed in the study area shows a decline—recovery trend in the historical period in general and a weak increase in Wuhan and Shanghai. (2) The maximum wind speed does not follow the Weibull distribution, and the extracted extreme wind speed types include type I, II, and III GEV distributions. (3) The updated inland port project design wind speed can meet the climatic and topographic characteristics of the YRIW. (4) The model of CNRM-CM6-1-HR product accurately captures the spatial and temporal characteristics of the maximum wind speed. (5) In the future, the design wind speed shows a slight decrease in Shanghai, Jiujiang and Yueyang. These findings provide a scientific theoretical reference and engineering reference for the development of design wind speeds for inland port projects at various cross-sections in the YRIW.

Keywords

• climate change
• design wind speed
• wind extremes
• inland port
• Weibull
• GEV