THE IMPACT OF PENSION REFORM ON THE NUMBER OF PENSIONERS IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

Abstract

For the geostrategically important regions of Russia’s Arctic—areas that are particularly vulnerable to population aging—it is essential to monitor trends in the number of pensioners. This is critical not only for budgetary planning but also for effective labor market regulation. Changes in the number of pensioners result from both demographic shifts and adjustments to retirement age thresholds introduced by the ongoing pension reform. This study aims to assess changes in the number of pensioners and working pensioners in the Russian Arctic during the implementation of the pension reform (2018–2028). The analysis draws on data from 2018 to 2023, including regional-level indicators on population, workforce, pensioners, and working pensioners, disaggregated by gender and single-year age groups. The forecast for the number of pensioners is based on a multiplicative survival rate model extrapolated using the Gompertz–Makeham function. The projection of working pensioners relies on a logistic function of age, which is universal and independent of region and gender. The study’s scientific and practical novelty lies in its contribution to the methodological toolkit for economic and demographic research, as well as in the new empirical estimates of projected changes in the number of pensioners and working pensioners. These findings are highly relevant for public policy and management in the Russian Arctic. Results indicate that the number of pensioners in the Russian Arctic will decline by approximately 296,200 individuals between 2018 and 2028, which will cause an economic effect. However, a simultaneous twofold decrease in the number of working pensioners is also expected, which may negatively affect labor resource dynamics in the region. Future research will focus on analyzing the reform’s broader impact on the labor market, particularly changes in employment linked to the increasing retirement age. Additionally, studies of the qualifications of working pensioners are of interest, as this group represents a potential source for addressing workforce shortages.

Keywords

• arctic regions
• population
• pension reform
• pensioners
• working pensioners