Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Australia; Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Papua New Guinea; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
Ivo Mueller
Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Parkville, Australia; University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; ISGlobal, Barcelona Centre for International Health Research, Hospital Clínic-University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
The molecular force of blood-stage infection (molFOB) is a quantitative surrogate metric for malaria transmission at population level and for exposure at individual level. Relationships between molFOB, parasite prevalence and clinical incidence were assessed in a treatment-to-reinfection cohort, where P.vivax (Pv) hypnozoites were eliminated in half the children by primaquine (PQ). Discounting relapses, children acquired equal numbers of new P. falciparum (Pf) and Pv blood-stage infections/year (Pf-molFOB = 0–18, Pv-molFOB = 0–23) resulting in comparable spatial and temporal patterns in incidence and prevalence of infections. Including relapses, Pv-molFOB increased >3 fold (relative to PQ-treated children) showing greater heterogeneity at individual (Pv-molFOB = 0–36) and village levels. Pf- and Pv-molFOB were strongly associated with clinical episode risk. Yearly Pf clinical incidence rate (IR = 0.28) was higher than for Pv (IR = 0.12) despite lower Pf-molFOB. These relationships between molFOB, clinical incidence and parasite prevalence reveal a comparable decline in Pf and Pv transmission that is normally hidden by the high burden of Pv relapses. Clinical trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934
