Natural Hazards Research (Sep 2023)
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment of Mizoram, North East India
Abstract
This paper presents seismic hazard and risk assessment for the state of Mizoram based on a classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and event-based probabilistic seismic risk analysis. For the seismic hazard estimation, analysis has been performed considering the areal source model, fault zone polygon, and smoothed gridded seismicity model. The earthquake activity rates for these source zones and smoothed gridded seismicity sources are estimated from the homogenized and declustered earthquake catalogue. The logic tree framework is applied in the seismic source models and Ground Motion Prediction equations (GMPEs) to account for the epistemic uncertainties. Five Next-generation attenuation (NGA) GMPEs for the active shallow region and three GMPEs for the Indo-Burma subduction zone have been used to evaluate the hazard at the reference rock condition (Vs30 = 760 m/s). Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at 0.2 s and 1s are estimated for each eight districts headquarters of Mizoram for a 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) are also presented. For seismic risk analysis, building exposure data are based on digitized building footprint and 2011 Housing Census data of India. All the buildings are classified into three classes, and seismic vulnerability functions are assigned to each building class. The area per building class is assigned from the digitized footprint. Building replacement costs per square meter have been chosen based on expert input and values identified from past study. Lastly, the study conducted a seismic risk analysis using the Open Quake-engine's probabilistic event-based methodology to estimate risk metrics at the district level, such as average annual losses and probability curves for loss exceedance. The study's findings provide valuable insights into the most high-risk areas, the building construction types that are most vulnerable to seismic activity, and the anticipated economic losses in the state of Mizoram. These results can serve as a guide for local government authorities in developing future city plans and implementing earthquake risk mitigation strategies.
