PLoS ONE (Jan 2014)

Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.

  • David McMillon,
  • Carl P Simon,
  • Jeffrey Morenoff

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088923
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9, no. 4
p. e88923

Abstract

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The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.