Forecasting of wheat production in Haryana using hybrid time series model

Abstract

Agriculture plays vital role in Indian economy and employment; India is one of the largest countries in terms of wheat production and consumption. This research aims to study instability and sustainability of production of wheat in Haryana. Data of wheat production collected from various versions of Haryana Statistical Abstract for the study period 1980–81 to 2018–19 of Haryana state have been utilized. Box-Jenkins ARIMA model and Artificial neural network (ANN) methodology was used to develop the model and estimate the forecasting behavior, hybrid approach also has been employed, experiment concluded that increasing trend pattern was observed in the area, production and yield of wheat crop in Haryana. Growth rate is found positive in all sub periods with respect to area, production and yield of wheat. Highest growth in production and yield was observed during first sub-period i.e. 1980-1989 whereas area showed maximum growth in second sub-period i.e. 1990-1999. Haryana has second rank in terms of wheat yield sustainability after Punjab. The forecasting of production behaviors of major crops playing an important role towards food and nutrition security policymakers, these findings can assist policymakers and may provide them with insights into potential production scenarios for major crops.

Keywords

• Sustainability
• ARIMA
• ANN
• Hybrid modeling