Risk of adverse events in gastrointestinal endoscopy: Zero-inflated Poisson regression mixture model for count data and multinomial logit model for the type of event.

Abstract

Background and aimsWe analyze the possible predictive variables for Adverse Events (AEs) during sedation for gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy.MethodsWe consider 23,788 GI endoscopies under sedation on adults between 2012 and 2019. A Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression Mixture (ZIPRM) model for count data with concomitant variables is applied, accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and evaluating the risks of multi-drug sedation. A multinomial logit model is also estimated to evaluate cardiovascular, respiratory, hemorrhagic, other AEs and stopping the procedure risk factors.ResultsIn 7.55% of cases, one or more AEs occurred, most frequently cardiovascular (3.26%) or respiratory (2.77%). Our ZIPRM model identifies one population for non-zero counts. The AE-group reveals that age >75 years yields 46% more AEs than age ConclusionsAge, BMI, ASA score, Mallampati score, in-hospital, procedure duration, other sedatives with propofol increase the risk for AEs during sedation for GI endoscopy.