Rainfall in the Urban Area and Its Impact on Climatology and Population Growth
Lua da Silva Monteiro,
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior,
Bushra Ghaffar,
Aqil Tariq,
Shujing Qin,
Faisal Mumtaz,
Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho,
Munawar Shah,
Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim,
Marcos Vinícius da Silva,
Dimas de Barros Santiago,
Heliofábio Gomes Barros,
David Mendes,
Marcel Carvalho Abreu,
Amaury de Souza,
Luiz Cláudio Gomes Pimentel,
Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva,
Muhammad Aslam,
Alban Kuriqi
Affiliations
Lua da Silva Monteiro
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió 57072-260, Alagoas, Brazil
José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió 57072-260, Alagoas, Brazil
Bushra Ghaffar
Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences, International Islamic University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Aqil Tariq
Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, 775 Stone Boulevard, Starkville, MS 39762, USA
Shujing Qin
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Faisal Mumtaz
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho
Institute of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics (IMEF), Federal University of Rio Grande (FURG), Rio Grande 96203-900, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Munawar Shah
Department of Space Science, Space Education and GNSS Lab, National Center for GIS and Space Application, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Alexandre Maniçoba da Rosa Ferraz Jardim
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco (UFRPE), Dom Manoel de Medeiros Avenue, SN, Dois Irmãos, Recife 52171-900, Pernambuco, Brazil
Marcos Vinícius da Silva
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco (UFRPE), Dom Manoel de Medeiros Avenue, SN, Dois Irmãos, Recife 52171-900, Pernambuco, Brazil
Dimas de Barros Santiago
Postgraduate Program in Meteorology, Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences (UACA), Federal University of Campina Grande (UFCG), Campina Grande 58429-140, Paraíba, Brazil
Heliofábio Gomes Barros
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Maceió 57072-260, Alagoas, Brazil
David Mendes
Post-Graduate Program in Aerospace Engineering—PPGEA, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte—UFRN, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, Natal 59078-970, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
Marcel Carvalho Abreu
Department of Environmental Sciences, Forestry Institute, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, Rod. BR 465, Km 07, Seropédica 23890-000, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Amaury de Souza
Physics Institute, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, C.P. 549, Campo Grande 79070-900, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
Luiz Cláudio Gomes Pimentel
Department of Meteorology, Geoscience Institute (IGEO), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro 21941-916, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Jhon Lennon Bezerra da Silva
National Institute of the Semi-Arid (INSA), Núcleo de Gestão da Informação e Popularização da Ciência, Campina Grande 58434-700, Paraíba, Brazil
Muhammad Aslam
School of Computing Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of West of Scotland, Paisley G72 0LH, UK
Alban Kuriqi
CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
Due to the scarcity of studies linking the variability of rainfall and population growth in the capital cities of Northeastern Brazil (NEB), the purpose of this study is to evaluate the variability and multiscale interaction (annual and seasonal), and in addition, to detect their trends and the impact of urban growth. For this, monthly rainfall data between 1960 and 2020 were used. In addition, the detection of rainfall trends on annual and seasonal scales was performed using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and compared with the phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The relationship between population growth data and rainfall data for different decades was established. Results indicate that the variability of multiscale urban rainfall is directly associated with the ENSO and PDO phases, followed by the performance of rain-producing meteorological systems in the NEB. In addition, the anthropic influence is shown in the relational pattern between population growth and the variability of decennial rainfall in the capitals of the NEB. However, no capital showed a significant trend of increasing annual rainfall (as in the case of Aracaju, Maceió, and Salvador). The observed population increase in the last decades in the capitals of the NEB and the notable decreasing trend of rainfall could compromise the region’s water security. Moreover, if there is no strategic planning about water bodies, these changes in the rainfall pattern could be compromising.
