Vulnerability of mammal communities to the combined impacts of anthropic land-use and climate change in the Himalayan conservation landscape of Bhutan

Abstract

Human land-use and climate change drive biodiversity loss, precipitating the extinction crisis. The fragility of the Himalayas makes species in this landscape vulnerable to land-use and climate change. We aim to quantify the response of terrestrial mammal community to land-use and climate scenarios in the Bhutan Himalaya. Using large-scale camera-trap dataset, we examine the effects of anthropic land-use and climate variables on the terrestrial mammal assemblage using Bayesian multi-species occupancy model. Most of the terrestrial mammals in our sample displayed a strong negative relationship with anthropic land-use variables (agriculture, roads and settlement). Further, the occurrence of most species decreased with likely projections for climate variables, illustrating threats to conservation if the current trend in global warming continues. Notably, we found that biodiversity conservation in this landscape can be achieved by protecting extensive forest cover. Our findings emphasize the importance of reconciling land-use management and mammal conservation in the face of climate change and provide vital information which can be used to optimize future conservation and development plans.

Keywords

• Camera-trapping
• Climate
• Conservation landscape
• Land use
• Multi-species occupancy model
• Himalaya