ResTUnet: A Novel Neural Network Model for Nowcasting Using Radar Echo Sequences by Ground-Based Remote Sensing

Abstract

Radar echo extrapolation by ground-based remote sensing is essential for weather prediction and flight guiding. Existing radar echo extrapolation methods can hardly capture complex spatiotemporal features, resulting in the low accuracy of predictions, and, therefore, severely restrict their use in extreme weather situations. A deep learning method was recently applied for extrapolating radar echoes; however, its accuracy declines too quickly over a short time. In this study, we introduce a solution: Residual Transformer and Unet (ResTUnet), a novel model that improves prediction accuracy and exhibits good stability with a slow rate of accuracy decline. This presented Rest-Net model is designed to solve the issue of declining prediction accuracy by integrating a 1*1 convolution to diminish the neural network parameters. We constructed an observed dataset by Zhengzhou East Airport radar observation from July 2022 to August 2022 and performed 90 min experiments comprising five aspects, including extrapolation images, the Probability of Detection (POD) index, the Critical Success Index (CSI), the False Alarm Rate (FAR) index, and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) index. The experimental results show that the ResTUnet model improved the CSI, HSS index, and the POD index by 17.20%, 11.97%, and 11.35%, compared to current models, including Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (convLSTM), the Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (convGRU), the Trajectory Gated Recurrent Unit (TrajGRU), and the improved recurrent network for video predictive learning, the Predictive Recurrent Neural Network++ (predRNN++). In addition, the mean squared error of the ResTUnet model remains stable at 15% between 0 and 60 min and starts to increase after 60–90 min, which is 12% better than the current models. This enhancement in prediction accuracy has practical applications in meteorological services and decision making.

Keywords

• radar echo
• neural network model
• weather prediction
• remote sensing
• climate change