Comparative Study of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models Applied to Data Preprocessing Methods for Dam Inflow Prediction

Abstract

In this study, we employed representative machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models previously utilized in the fields of rainfall and runoff analysis in the water resources sector. We not only performed hyperparameter tuning of the models but also considered the characteristics of the model and the combination and preprocessing (such as lag-time and moving average) of meteorological and hydrological data. We then compared and evaluated the performance of the models according to various scenarios of data characteristics and ML & DL model combinations for predicting daily water inflow. To accomplish this, we utilized meteorological and hydrological data collected from 1974 to 2021 in the Soyang River Dam Basin to examine 1) precipitation, 2) inflow, and 3) meteorological data as primary independent variables. We then employed a total of 36 scenario combinations as input data for ML & DL, applying a) lag-time, b) moving average, and c) component separation conditions for inflow. To identify the most suitable data combination characteristics and ML & DL models for predicting daily inflow, we compared and evaluated 10 different ML & DL models: 1) Linear Regression, 2) Lasso, 3) Ridge, 4) Support Vector Regression, 5) Random Forest (RF), 6) Light Gradient Boosting Model, 7) XGBoost for ML, and 8) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, 9) Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and 10) LSTM-TCN for DL.

Keywords

• machine learning
• deep learning
• daily inflow prediction
• data preprocessing