The Effects of Disaggregate Oil Shocks on the Aggregate Expected Skewness of the United States

Abstract

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables in the quarterly period of 1975:Q1 to 2022:Q2. We find that positive oil supply and global economic activity shocks increase the expected macroeconomic skewness in a statistically significant way, with the effects being relatively more pronounced in the lower regime of the aggregate skewness factor, i.e., when the US is witnessing downside risks. Interestingly, oil-specific consumption demand and oil inventory demand shocks contain no predictive ability for the overall expected skewness. With skewness being a metric for policymakers to communicate their beliefs about the path of future risks, our results have important implications for policy decisions.

Keywords

• oil shocks
• expected macroeconomic skewness
• US economy
• local projection model
• impulse response functions