Importance of combined winter and summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on September sea ice extent

Abstract

We examine the influence of winter and summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on variations in the September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). The winter and summer atmospheric patterns associated with year-to-year variations and detrended September SIE correlate with the positive winter AO and the negative summer AO, respectively. However, the interannual variations of winter and summer AO indices after 2007 are more weakly connected with year-to-year variations in the September SIE. Since 2007, the surface air temperatures over the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas are related to the interannual variations of the September SIE. Recent summer atmospheric patterns associated with the September SIE correlate with the summer AO pattern, but the summer anticyclonic circulation over the Arctic favours the recent low September SIE more than the seesaw pattern between mid- and high- latitudes. Recent winters’ positive AO have not contributed to the recent low September SIE because winter anticyclonic circulation over northern Eurasia is more directly connected with recent September SIE.

Keywords

• Arctic sea ice
• summer AO
• winter AO
• Arctic climate changes
• surface air temperature