The escalating global climate crisis and energy challenges have made the development of efficient radiative cooling materials increasingly urgent. This study presents a machine-learning-based model for predicting the performance of radiative cooling aerogels (RCAs). The model integrated multiple parameters, including the material composition (matrix material type and proportions), modification design (modifier type and content), optical properties (solar reflectance and infrared emissivity), and environmental factors (solar irradiance and ambient temperature) to achieve accurate cooling performance predictions. A comparative analysis of various machine learning algorithms revealed that an optimized XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive performance, achieving an R2 value of 0.943 and an RMSE of 1.423 for the test dataset. An interpretability analysis using Shapley additive explanations (SHAPs) identified a ZnO modifier (SHAP value, 1.523) and environmental parameters (ambient temperature, 1.299; solar irradiance, 0.979) as the most significant determinants of cooling performance. A feature interaction analysis further elucidated the complex interplay between the material composition and environmental conditions, providing theoretical guidance for material optimization.
