Diurnal asymmetry in future temperature changes over the main Belt and Road regions

Abstract

Introduction: Daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures and Diurnal temperature range (DTR) profoundly affect the ecological environment and socioeconomic systems. In this study, we project future changes in Tmax, Tmin and DTR for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using fine-resolution downscaled data from the 18global coupled models over the main regions of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Outcomes: The Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean projections show that future warming is stronger in Tmax than in Tmin, leading to the increased DTR over central and southern Europe, many areas surrounding the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and southeastern China. By contrast, the DTR is projected to decline over the regions north of 55°N and other some areas due to the more rapid increase in Tmin than in Tmax. As a whole, the diurnal asymmetry of projected future temperature changes is found to mainly occur from November to March. Conclusions: Our findings contribute to the knowledgebase on climate change over the main BRI regions. Regarding uneven spatiotemporal changes in Tmax, Tmin and DTR, appropriate climate change adaptation strategies, and options should be adopted to reduce or avoid disadvantaged consequences to the natural system and human society over specific regions.

Keywords

• the belt and road
• climate change
• surface air temperature
• diurnal asymmetry
• future projection