The public health impact of COVID-19 variants of concern on the effectiveness of contact tracing in Vermont, United States

Abstract

Abstract Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) are public health measures that aim to break the chain of pathogen transmission. Changes in viral characteristics of COVID-19 variants have likely affected the effectiveness of CICT programs. We estimated and compared the cases averted in Vermont when the original COVID-19 strain circulated (Nov. 25, 2020–Jan. 19, 2021) with two periods when the Delta strain dominated (Aug. 1–Sept. 25, 2021, and Sept. 26–Nov. 20, 2021). When the original strain circulated, we estimated that CICT prevented 7180 cases (55% reduction in disease burden), compared to 1437 (15% reduction) and 9970 cases (40% reduction) when the Delta strain circulated. Despite the Delta variant being more infectious and having a shorter latency period, CICT remained an effective tool to slow spread of COVID-19; while these viral characteristics did diminish CICT effectiveness, non-viral characteristics had a much greater impact on CICT effectiveness.

Keywords

• Case investigation
• Contact tracing
• Cases averted
• COVID-19
• Modeling