Microgeneration of Wind Energy for Micro and Small Businesses: Application of ANN in Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic Economic Feasibility

Abstract

To reduce the risks of a new energy crisis and increase energy availability, the use of renewable energy sources (RES) is important and recommended. In Brazil, micro and small companies contribute about 25% of gross domestic product (GDP), and electric energy is employed intensively, so the importance of microgeneration is observable. This research aims to analyze the economic viability of the micro-generation wind energy project for micro and small businesses. Thus, three Brazilian states, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais were considered, and different scenarios were proposed. A feasibility analysis is then performed, followed by a stochastic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, models of artificial neural networks (ANN) are used to evaluate the relative importance (RI) of the variables. The results show that none of the states appears economically feasible under the conditions presented. In the stochastic analysis, the probability of viability is between 17% and 24% in all states, which shows the low probability of viability for microgeneration. Through ANN training, it was possible to calculate the RI, in which it is possible to identify the variables that have most impact on the net present value (NPV) in all states; it is considered the most important variable in the project's viability. In addition, the discussion explores the importance of public incentives for promoting investment in renewable energy, which can reduce investment costs and make it attractive to small and medium-sized businesses.

Keywords

• Microgeneration
• wind power
• stochastic feasibility analysis
• sensitivity analysis
• artificial neural networks