Ziyuan Kexue (Aug 2024)
Comprehensive benefit prediction of carbon capture, utilization, and storage investment in coal-fired power plants in China
Abstract
[Objective] Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology is a core tool for reducing emissions and carbon output in coal-fired power plants and is considered key to achieving the carbon neutrality goals. However, in China, the economic returns on investment in CCUS are low, the overall benefits are uncertain and difficult to measure, and CCUS is still in the demonstration phase. Accurately forecasting the benefits of CCUS investment is of critical scientific significance for clarifying technological pathways, optimizing resource allocation, and promoting its commercialization. [Methods] This study took coal-fired power plants as the research subject and employed the system dynamics method to predict the comprehensive benefits of CCUS investment in Chinese coal-fired power plants from four dimensions: economic development, electric energy, environmental emission reduction, and social security. [Results] (1) The study found that after coal-fired power plants were equipped with CCUS technology, the comprehensive benefits of CCUS investment experienced a change from low-level stagnation to fluctuating increases, and then rapid growth. (2) Driven by technological progress and economies of scale, the benefits of CCUS investment have significantly increased. Technological progress has improved capture efficiency and reduced costs, while economies of scale have enhanced economic, environmental, and social benefits through increased installed capacity and improved carbon reduction efficiency, greatly improving overall investment returns.(3) Government subsidies, carbon taxes, and carbon trading prices all significantly enhance the benefits of CCUS investment. Among them, the carbon trading mechanism has the most notable impact on economic benefits and environmental reduction, while the carbon taxes,by increasing power generation costs, not only indirectly motivates enterprises to implement CCUS technology upgrades but also further improves overall investment efficiency. [Conclusion] In the process of commercial deployment and comprehensive benefit improvement of CCUS, the cost reduction brought by the iteration and scale of CCUS itself plays a core role. Compared with policy support measures such as subsidies, the carbon market trading mechanism plays a greater incentive role in the development of CCUS. Based on this, China should strengthen CCUS technology research, promote the inclusion of CCUS projects in the carbon trading mechanism as soon as possible, and formulate a moderate subsidy incentive policy for CCUS to increase the benefits of CCUS investment and help achieve the carbon neutrality goals.
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