Short- and long-term prediction of length of day time series using a combination of MCSSA and ARMA

Abstract

Abstract Accurately predicting Earth’s rotation rate, as represented by Length of Day (LOD) variations, is essential for applications such as satellite navigation, climate studies, geophysical research, and disaster prevention. However, predicting LOD is challenging due to its sensitivity to various geophysical and meteorological factors. Current methods, including statistical approaches, often struggle with short-term forecasting accuracy. In this study, we use Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis (MCSSA) to distinguish between deterministic and non-deterministic components within the LOD time series. The deterministic components are extended using the SSA prediction algorithm. To enhance robustness, we refine Allen and Smith’s methodology (testing significance of eigenmodes against an autoregressive (AR) (1) noise null hypothesis) by integrating an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to account for noise, providing valuable insights into the non-deterministic behaviors present in the series. We comprehensively evaluate our methodology through a comparative analysis. For long-term prediction (365 days), we compare our method against the combined LS and autoregressive (AR) method. For short-term prediction (next 10 days), we compare it against the results of the second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (second EOP PCC). Using the IERS 20 C04 time series, our hybrid model demonstrates a superior long-term prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.201 ms/day on the 365th day. Additionally, the short-term prediction performance is comparable to the second EOP PCC results. These results illustrate that the proposed method efficiently predicts LOD, showing significant improvement in long-term accuracy and robustness in short-term forecasting. Graphical abstract

Keywords

• Prediction
• Length of day
• Singular spectrum analysis
• Monte Carlo
• ARMA
• Least square