Analysis of Driving Factors and Predictions of Arable Land Area Based on PLUS Model

Abstract

[Objective] The spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of arable land in the Tumen River basin and the driving factors for changes in arable land area were explored, and changes in arable land area associated with the Land Spatial Planning of Jilin Province (2021—2035) were predicted in order to provide a decision support basis for the rational planning and utilization of arable land resources in the Tumen River Basin. [Methods] Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of arable land were explored through an analysis of a land use shift matrix and a center of gravity shift analysis. Markov and PLUS models were coupled to predict the quantity and spatial changes of cultivated land area under different scenarios. [Results] ① The total area of arable land has been decreasing continuously since 1990, but the overall situation was under control. The total area had decreased by 440.42 km2 by 2020, with arable land having been mainly transformed into forest land and construction land. ② There were obvious differences in the spatial distribution of arable land, with arable land concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin. The center of gravity of arable land gradually shifted to the southwest at a rate of 43.1 m per year. ③ Socioeconomic factors (GDP, road traffic, population) and natural factors (slope, precipitation) were the main drivers influencing arable land changes in the past. ④ The total amount of arable land for both scenarios decreased over time. The total area of arable land in 2035 in the goal-oriented scenario will be 128.57 km2 less than in 2020. The reduction in arable land will be concentrated mainly in the planned development zones and protected areas. [Conclusion] Pressures on arable land in the study area have increased because of rapid socioeconomic development over the past 30 years, and the current trends are not conducive to achieving the land spatial planning goals. In order to protect arable land quantity, quality, and ecology, and to sustainably develop arable land resources, those resources in the upstream and western areas of the study area must be developed appropriately so that the scale and technology of original agriculture can be promoted. Additionally, goal-oriented scenarios are more conducive to the sustainable development of arable land resources in the Tumen River basin, and land spatial planning goals should continue to be implemented.

Keywords

• tumen river basin
• arable land changes
• plus model
• driving factors analysis
• future prediction