Post-Disaster Well-Being Loss: Estimation Model Based on the 2015 Atacama Mudslides, Chile

Abstract

Disasters triggered by extreme natural events are increasing yearly, especially those related to climate hazards. Globally, these events generate huge losses, causing millions of people to fall into poverty. Estimating these damages and losses accurately is crucial for public policies. However, existing methodologies are biased towards immediate effects and do not consider secondary effects or other impacts associated with welfare. Although in Chile the effects of disasters result in a relatively low number of victims and material damages considering the country's level of disaster risk, it is urgent to better understand the effects of disasters on the population. This paper proposes a model for analyzing post-disaster secondary effects in Chile, related to the welfare of the population in the medium term. By considering time series of administrative information related to different dimensions of welfare, it is possible to shed light on the long-term effects of these events on the population, including those not usually contemplated by post-disaster recovery policies. The study concludes with a discussion of possible actions aimed at ensuring a comprehensive recovery of the communities.

Keywords

• desastre
• bienestar
• efectos secundarios
• mediano plazo
• políticas públicas
• chile