A case-crossover study on association between ambient temperature and injury incidence in Shenzhen City

Abstract

BackgroundUnder the background of global warming, research on association between ambient temperature and risk of injury is needed. ObjectiveTo examine the effect of temperature on injury in Bao'an district, Shenzhen and identify the sensitive population, thereby providing a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies and measures of injury. MethodsThe injury reports from the Injury Surveillance System and the meteorological data of Bao'an District between 2018 to 2022 were collected. The meteorological data were sourced from the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land reanalysis data. Based on time-stratified case-crossover design, conditional logistic regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the exposure-response association between ambient temperature and injury. The stratified analyses were further conducted by gender, age, and causes of injury. ResultsA total of 156205 injury cases were collected from the injury surveillance sentinel hospitals in Bao'an District of Shenzhen from 2018 to 2022, and the median of daily average temperature during the same period was 20.0 ℃. The exposure-response curve showed that the risk of injury was positively correlated with temperature. The linearized analysis revealed that each 1°C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.05% (95%CI: 0.68%, 1.42%) rise in injury risk (ER). Notably, the effect was greater in females (ER=1.31%, 95%CI: 0.67%, 1.94%) than males (ER=0.92%, 95%CI: 0.47%, 1.37%). Among age groups, adults ＞60 years faced the highest risk (ER=1.91%, 95%CI: −0.36%, 4.24%). The top three temperature-associated injury risks were sharp instrument injuries (ER=2.19%, 95%CI: 1.16%, 3.22%), animal injuries (ER=1.71%, 95%CI: 0.86%, 2.56%), and blunt injuries (ER=071%, 95%CI: −0.08%, 1.51%). The impact of temperature on unintentional injuries (ER=1.11%, 95%CI: 0.72%, 1.49%) was higher than that on intentional injuries (ER=0.43%, 95%CI: −0.85%, 1.72%). Severe injuries (ER=2.20%, 95%CI: −3.09%, 7.77%) were more affected by temperature than mild injuries (ER=1.00%, 95%CI: 0.58%, 1.43%) and moderate injuries (ER=1.15%, 95%CI: 0.42%, 1.89%). ConclusionThe increase in ambient temperature associates with injury occurrence, and the impact of temperature exhibits obvious heterogeneity among different populations, indicating that targeted intervention measures should be taken for different populations and types of injuries.

Keywords

• temperature
• injury
• case-crossover study
• excess risk
• sharp instrument injury
• animal injury