Modelling and stability analysis of ASFV with swill and the virus in the environment

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is an acute, hemorrhagic and severe infectious disease caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), and leads to a serious threat to the pig industry in China. Yet the impact of the virus in the environment and contaminated swill on the ASFV transmission is unclear in China. Then we build the ASFV transmission model with the virus in the environment and swill. We compute the basic reproduction number, and prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 < 1 $ and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_0 > 1 $. Using the public information, parameter values are evaluated. PRCCs and eFAST sensitivity analysis reveal that the release rate of ASFV from asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious pigs and the proportion of pig products from infectious pigs to swill have a significant impact on the ASFV transmission. Our findings suggest that the virus in the environment and contaminated swill contribute to the ASFV transmission. Our results may help animal health to prevent and control the ASFV transmission.

Keywords

• african swine fever
• mathematical model
• swill
• sensitivity analysis
• global stability