A Novel DGM(1, N) Model with Interval Grey Action Quantity and Its Application for Forecasting Hydroelectricity Consumption of China

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of the conventional DGM(1, N) model’s prediction results not taking into account the grey system theory pri1nciple of the “non-uniqueness of solutions”. Firstly, before presenting the interval grey action quantity, the practical significance of grey action quantity is examined. In the DGM(1, N) model, the grey action quantity is transformed into an interval grey action quantity. Then, the calculation of the parameters uses the least squares method. A DGM(1, N, ⊗c) model containing interval grey action is then built, and meanwhile, the program code for DGM(1, N, ⊗c) is provided. Lastly, the aforementioned model is used to forecast the hydroelectricity consumption of China. The findings indicate that it produces more rational outcomes than the traditional DGM(1, N) model. Overall, the research carries significant pragmatic implications for broadening the conceptual underpinnings of multivariate grey forecasting models and enhancing their structural arrangement.

Keywords

• grey prediction
• DGM(1
• N) model
• interval grey action quantity
• non-uniqueness of solution