Economic and Social Determinants of Addiction in Iran with Emphasis on Business Cycles

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, social and demographic factors with the prevalence rate of drug use in the provinces of Iran during the period of 1386-1394. Due to the lack of reliable and sufficient data, a time series data for the prevalence rate is developed by using probit models and estimation of the probabilities of addiction for 10 age groups with different demographic characteristics in three groups of provinces (with high, medium, and low prevalence rates). Then, the panel data model was used to answer the research questions. The results of the first part of this study show that the prevalence rate of drug use in the Iran increased from about 3.7% in 2007 to about 4.5% in Year 2015. The results of the second part of the study show that the prevalence rate of addiction has a negative and significant relationship with per capita income; men education level, and has a positive and significant relationship with inflation and Gini coefficient. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between the prevalence rate of addiction and the poverty and unemployment (especially men unemployment). Another finding is the negative and significant relation between the prevalence of addiction and the real per capita government expenditure. Also, the positive relationship of the economic downturn with the prevalence rate is confirmed. This fact suggests that the rate of drug addiction is counter-cyclical in the country.

Keywords

• drug use
• addiction
• economic and social factors
• business cycles