Biases of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models

Abstract

Distinct biases are found in the pattern and teleconnections of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in 32 climate models that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with observations, the Pacific (Atlantic) center of AO is excessively strong (weak) in most of the 32 CMIP5 models, and the AO-related surface air temperature anomalies are generally weak over the Eurasian continent and North America. These biases are closely tied to the excessively strong linkage, which is marginal in observations, between AO and the North Pacific mode (NPM)—the leading variability of the North Pacific sea level pressure. It implies that the AO in CMIP5 models may be compounded with some regional mode over the North Pacific. Accordingly, a bias-correction method was proposed via correcting the AO index (AOI) to improve the diagnostic estimates of the AO teleconnections. The results suggest that the biases in the pattern and teleconnections of AO can be significantly reduced when the NPM variability is linearly removed from the AOI.

Keywords

• Arctic Oscillation (AO)
• CMIP5
• North Pacific
• Pacific-North America (PNA)
• empirical orthogonal function (EOF)