Статистика и экономика (Jun 2018)
Aggregation and the economy prototyping of municipality in the conditions of lability and robust changes
Abstract
Purpose of the study. The purpose of the scientific paper is the formation of a model of managing the economy of municipality through aggregation and prototyping in conditions of lability and robustness of changes. As part of the stated goal, the author is supposed to conduct the economy prototyping of the municipality based on built-in management platforms; to form an adapted risk assessment model in the implementation of smart-project; to propose an aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy.Materials and methods. While writing a scientific article, the methods of situational and simulation modeling, approximation and grouping of specific elements of the structural object, and the process of algorithmization of functional processes are used. Particular emphasis in this paper is made on the methodological apparatus, which allows drawing conclusions based on subjective author’s opinion, to take into account external changes in the system under study. These methodological approaches include entropy of scientific knowledge, aberration, approximation, robustness. Results. Within the framework of the conducted research the following conclusions are formed: the municipal economy is in the process of transformation, it is possible to obtain positive changes with the help of prototyping the model of municipality; smart- projects as the basis of the economy of the municipality are subject to robustness and lability of changes, provoking negative risks; game theory is a rather important tool, used in the context of the definition of the riskiness of the smart-project the aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy of the municipality makes it possible to formulate certain premises of the Smart City concept in municipalities. Conclusion. For the effective development of municipalities, it is necessary to transform the economies towards the formation of municipality based on using prototyping and aggregation tools in conditions of lability and robustness of the changes. Presented in the scientific paper, the aspect of aggregation and prototyping of the economy of the municipal formation is the initial stage in the development of the concept of management of the Smart Economy of the municipal formation. The transformation of municipal economies regulates the need for a new tool for the development of these territories. The author of the scientific article proposes to use the adapted model of risk assessment of Smart-design based on game theory and the aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy of a municipal formation. The adapted model of risk assessment of Smart-design on the ground of the theory of games is based on the use of the Bayes criterion, Wald’s maximin criterion, the Savage decision-making criterion, the Hurwitz stability criterion, the Hodges-Lehmann criterion. The selected criteria contribute to the definition of the least risky Smart- project with the aim of its implementation in the municipal economy. The aggregated model for assessing the economy development of the municipal entity projects the regression parameter data algorithm – Constructive Coste Model (COCOMO) on the basis of which a conclusion is given about the level of the economy development of the municipal formation. In the future, simulation models of economic management can supplement this study in conditions of the prevalence of knowledge and intelligence, as well as methods for assessing the quality of urban technological infrastructure.
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