Georeferencing of COVID-19 Positive Nasopharyngeal Swabs to Support Emergency Management in an Area of Northern Italy

Abstract

Spatial distribution heterogeneity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been observed in several countries. While previous studies have covered vast geographic areas, detailed analyses on smaller territories are not available to date. The aim of our study was to understand the spatial spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a province of Northern Italy through the analysis of positive nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs. The study was conducted on subjects who lived in the province of Alessandria with at least one positive NP swab between 2 March and 22 December 2020. To investigate if clustering occurred, the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects over the total number of residents in each small administrative subregion was calculated and then mapped. A total of 17,260 subjects with at least one positive NP swab were included; the median age was 54 years (Interquartile range 38–72) and 54.9% (n = 9478) of our study population were female. Among the 192 towns scanned, 26 showed a prevalence between 5% and 7.5%, one between 7.5% and 10% and two with more than 10% positive swabs. The territories with a higher prevalence of positive subjects were located in areas with at least one nursing home and potential clusters were observed within these structures. The maps produced may be considered a useful and important monitoring system to identify areas with a significant and relevant diffusion of SARS-CoV-2.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• spatial analysis
• nursing home
• prevalence
• analytical and synthetic maps