Predicting labor onset relative to the estimated date of delivery using smart ring physiological data

Abstract

Abstract The transition from pregnancy into parturition is physiologically directed by maternal, fetal and placental tissues. We hypothesize that these processes may be reflected in maternal physiological metrics. We enrolled pregnant participants in the third-trimester (n = 118) to study continuously worn smart ring devices monitoring heart rate, heart rate variability, skin temperature, sleep and physical activity from negative temperature coefficient, 3-D accelerometer and infrared photoplethysmography sensors. Weekly surveys assessed labor symptoms, pain, fatigue and mood. We estimated the association between each metric, gestational age, and the likelihood of a participant’s labor beginning prior to (versus after) the clinical estimated delivery date (EDD) of 40.0 weeks with mixed effects regression. A boosted random forest was trained on the physiological metrics to predict pregnancies that naturally passed the EDD versus undergoing onset of labor prior to the EDD. Here we report that many raw sleep, activity, pain, fatigue and labor symptom metrics are correlated with gestational age. As gestational age advances, pregnant individuals have lower resting heart rate 0.357 beats/minute/week, 0.84 higher heart rate variability (milliseconds) and shorter durations of physical activity and sleep. Further, random forest predictions determine pregnancies that would pass the EDD with accuracy of 0.71 (area under the receiver operating curve). Self-reported symptoms of labor correlate with increased gestational age and not with the timing of labor (relative to EDD) or onset of spontaneous labor. The use of maternal smart ring-derived physiological data in the third-trimester may improve prediction of the natural duration of pregnancy relative to the EDD.