Global Warming Drives Transitions in Suitable Habitats and Ecological Services of Rare <i>Tinospora</i> Miers Species in China

Abstract

Tinospora Miers is considered a valuable medicinal herb that is suffering from severe habitat degradation due to climate change and human activities, but the variations in its suitable habitats and ecological service values remain unclear, especially in the context of accelerating global warming. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to estimate the suitable habitat changes and ecological service values of three rare Tinospora (T. craveniana, T. yunnanensis, and T. sinensis) species in China under four climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2041 to 2100. The results show that the suitable habitats of T. craveniana, T. yunnanensis, and T. sinensis are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guangxi, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of T. craveniana and T. sinensis is projected to expand toward the northeast and north, while that of T. yunnanensis will contract toward the northeast. The mean diurnal temperature range is the main environmental factor affecting T. craveniana and T. yunnanensis, while the annual mean temperature is a more important factor affecting T. sinensis. In the SSP245 scenario, T. craveniana and T. yunnanensis are expected to have the highest ecological service values from 2081 to 2100, while they will be relatively consistent in other climate scenarios and chronologies. The case of water protection accounts for the highest proportion of the total ecosystem service values, except for the economic value. This study provides a scientific reference for the diversity conservation of these rare species.

Keywords

• medicinal herbs
• climate change
• MaxEnt model
• Green GDP assessment