Regional models for distributed flash-flood nowcasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

Abstract

Flash floods monitoring systems developed up to now generally enable a real-time assessment of the potential flash-floods magnitudes based on highly distributed hydrological models and weather radar records. The approach presented here aims to go one step ahead by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of flash floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the considered area in order (1) to evaluate based on a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk based on geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build a simplified impact model (discharge-impact curve) for each river reach, which can be used to directly estimate the importance of potentially affected assets based on the outputs of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. This article presents a first case study conducted in the Gard region (south eastern France). The first validation results are presented in terms of (1) accuracy of the delineation of the flooded areas estimated based on the Cartino method and using a high resolution DTM, and (2) relevance and usefulness of the impact model obtained. The impacts estimated at the event scale will now be evaluated in a near future based on insurance claim data provided by CCR (Caisse Centrale de Réassurrance).