The Trends of Gastric Cancer in China From 1990 to 2019 and Predictions to 2040: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction Study

Abstract

Objectives This study aims to provide the most up-to-date temporal trends in incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of total gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the gastric cancer trends up to 2040. Methods Data for the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of stomach cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). We conducted joinpoint regression analysis to explore possible segmented changes in gastric cancer trends. We predicted gastric cancer trends up to 2040 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results The absolute incidence, mortality, and DALYs of gastric cancer increased from 1990 to 2019 in China. However, the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, mortality, and DALYs for gastric cancer decreased between 1990 and 2019, and the reductions were more pronounced for mortality and DALYs for gastric cancer. Conclusion Our study generally reveals favorable declining trends of gastric cancer incidence and predicts that this will continue to 2040. However, the high contemporary incidence combined with China’s aging population will likely slow or even reverse the declining trend in gastric cancer mortality.