Scenario Simulation of Urban Land Use and Ecosystem Service Coupling Major Function-Oriented Zoning

Abstract

Simulations of land use/land cover (LULC) and ecosystem services (ES), which integrate national land policies, reflect the development of land and ecological functions under different scenarios and are crucial for accurately predicting and optimizing urban ecosystem sustainable development. To effectively characterize the urban development trend that complies with urban land policies and spatial differences, we combined major function-oriented zoning (MFOZ) and simulated LULC and ES [including water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ)] within Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration under multiple scenarios. Based on the improved gray multi-objective optimization (IGMOP) model, the patch-generating land simulation (PLUS) model, and the integrated evaluation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, three scenarios were designed: business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC) scenarios. Results demonstrated higher accuracy with the LULC simulation coupling MFOZ. Under BAU, ED, and EC scenarios, the ecological land (EL) area was 924.99 × 104, 904.45 × 104, and 953.59 × 104 hm2, respectively. Compared to 2020, it increased by 0.77% and 1.95% under BAU and EC scenarios and decreased by 0.08% under ED scenario. The LULC changes under different scenarios influenced ES changes. Trade-offs occurred between WY&SR and CS&HQ under BAU and ED scenarios (WY&SR increased, CS&HQ decreased), while different ES types synergistically increased under EC scenario. Impervious surfaces and vegetation positively affected WY&SR, while forestland and impervious surfaces positively and negatively affected CS&HQ, respectively. The simulation coupling MFOZ may provide new insights for exploring more accurate ecological patterns, identifying potential sustainable spaces, and determining priority projects.